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ECONOMICS – FINANCE – WORLD NEWS – GREEK DEBT

Eurozone recession here to stay, UK gets ready for exit

Yesterday…
David Cameron and his comrades of the Conservative Party published a policy draft for a referendum for a possible EU-exit of the UK. The draft says the referendum has to be completed by December 2017, given the Tories win the 2015 elections. I think the campaigning just began. read BBC

While the global “recovery” continues to force deficits to skyrocket and imports to slump, India has managed to become the outlier in the trend on Monday afternoon. Taking advantage of the low gold price, imports rose 138% since April 2012 to $7.5bn, or 18% of all imports, while the trade deficit hit 17.8bn. read Zerohedge

And of course the drama over Bloomberg‘s use of user data continued… read FT Alphaville

This morning…
there was a flood of data, with the German economy growing 0.1% from 4Q12 to the first quarter of 2013, undercutting the depressing estimate of 0.3% growth. The French economy contracted by 0.2% over the same period of time. read Bloomberg
Franco-German relations haven’t been great since Hollande got into office, but this morning’s result may just worsen the atmosphere of any policy discussion. The eurozone as such, contracted 0.2% in 1Q13. The recession continues…

Simultaneously, Mervyn “it’s-almost-his-last-day” King of the Bank of England raised the outlook for the UK economy [with lower inflation] and raised his eyebrows at eurozone performance, as well as the continental Financial Transaction Tax. read Guardian

Meanwhile, the US is preparing to become the model student again. The Congressional Budget Office is forecasting the deficit to fall as far as $378bn by 2015, much faster than anticipated. The 2013 forecast was cut by $203bn to an overall $642bn. read Reuters
And that is not all: Formerly the largest corporate debt market in the world, providing ample opportunity for the Michael Milken followers of the world to make money, China is going to take that spot within the next two years, according to S&P. Soon America will be debt and deficit free and flow with milk and vodka (we’re all grown-ups here). read Financial Times

In the kerfuffle over whether Jamie Dimon is allowed to stay in in his double-role as chairman and CEO of JPMorgan seems to be blowing over (much like Lloyd Blankfein expected), as fewer shareholders than expected are looking to back the leadership reform. Another bullet dodged for the industry. read Financial Times

And in case you’ve been in a good mood this morning, have a look at this: 10 Scenes from the ongoing global economic collapse (Zerohedge)

So long.

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US payrolls estimate up; Twitter IPO rumors back

Yesterday…
the ECB shook up Europe for a moment, with government debt yields falling to new lows under the soothing sound of disgruntled murmuring Germans. The ECB is ready for more [again], it says, but Germans on the policy committee are going to do everything to keep rates from tumbling. In ze mozerland, Economists are scared of a real estate bubble and argue that banks could use the freshly pressed money to bolster their equity capital, dragging the effect away from the real economy. read FT read Die Zeit

This morning…
The EU deficit report came out, showing that France, Spain and the Netherlands will breach deficit agreements, limiting countries to 3%. Italy got in just below at 2.9% (based on 2013 forecast). Because France and the Netherlands aren’t the real bad guys, and you can’t leave one standing alone in the rain (unless it’s Greece), all of them are expected to receive extensions for reaching their deficit goals. France got its waiver this morning. read FT read Reuters

Its jobs Friday in the US: nonfarm payrolls are seen up at 148,000 (almost double), with the unemployment rate unchanged at 7.6%. But stakes are high as the estimates vary within a range of 90,000 jobs added. March payrolls came in below estimates, for example, but jobless claims have been declining over the past weeks. After the jobs report, there will be April non-manufacturing PMI, which is expected to fall slightly to 54. Data releases begin at 8.30am EST. read WSJ

In the background, rumors of Twitter’s IPO are going wild after the company hired Morgan Stanley’s Cynthia Gaylor for corporate development, despite co-founder Jack Dorsey saying he was “not even thinking” about going public. read Bloomberg read Bloomberg (Dorsey)

On Monday, the UK will be out for the early May bank holiday.

Weekend reading…IvyConnect: is a ‘fascinating individual’ necessarily a douchebag? read Bloomberg
– the real culprits behind the Libor scandal are London broker nights, read WSJ
– ze Germans are gestuck with the Euro, read Bloomberg
– stripped off the alter ego: ex-Barclays CEO Bob Diamond takes the subway now, read NYTimes
– terrorism, conspiracy and the media, read New York Magazine

Have a good one.

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US budget deficit decreases; ECB rate cut likely

Yesterday…
The IMF warned of the Asian bubble, saying too much FDI was leading to explosive credit growth and property prices, and it was to get even worse if Japan’s monetary policy was to have the intended effect on the Japanese economy (hold your horses, Christine). read FT

Deutsche Bank is issuing €2.8bn of new stock to improve its capital base. According to WSJ, Deutsche Bank has one of the lowest capital ratios among European banks. read WSJ

This morning…
The Dutch Queen Beatrix abdicated, to be replaced by her son Willem-Alexander. She will be demoted to Princess Beatrix. read BBC

The US Treasury is expecting the first lowering of the budget deficit since 2007 between April and June 2013, when it is looking to repay $35bn, against the February estimate of shouldering another $103bn in debt. The deficit cut is due to tax increases, spending cuts and tax revenues recoveries. read FT

There was a whole flood of data out of Europe this morning: both Eurozone and German inflation came in at 1.2%, lower than expected, making a rate cut by the ECB on Thursday more likely. German unemployment added to its rise in March, but the adjusted rate is still only marginally above the two-decade low of 6.8%. Eurozone unemployment climbed to 12.1%. No surprise there, when has it not been rising… read Alphaville

Spain reported GDP growth for the first quarter – keyword ‘growth’ – at -0.5%, leading the Bank of Spain to lower it 2013 growth expectations from -0.5% to -1.3%. read CNBC

So long.

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Cyprus to sell €400m in gold; bailout to total €23bn

Yesterday…
Barack Obama submitted a budget proposal to Congress, totalling $3.77tn and including policies to curb social security and medicare expenses. The proposal foresees a $744bn deficit for 2014. read article

While the minutes from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting were expected today, they were accidentally sent out early to lobbyists, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs. Oops. The notes supported the thesis that the Fed’s QE program could end by year-end 2014, given improvements in the job market. read article

This morning…
Over in Cyprus, €400m worth of gold are up for sale, as the country has to up its contributions to the bailout program that so far consists of €9bn from European institutions and €1bn from the IMF. Another €10.9bn will free up in the winding down of Laiki Bank. And yes, all that money, €23bn, will be needed to just keep the country afloat until the beginning of 2016. read article

China has seen a massive influx of foreign capital. In Q1 of this year, the country’s forex reserves exploded to $3.44tn from only $130bn in the previous quarter. New financing grew by 58% from the same period last year. read article

Next door in Japan, central bank governor Kuroda said the BoJ had done all it could at this point, and the asset purchasing program wouldn’t be expanded any further any time soon. read article

So long.

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Obama to unveil $3.77tn budget

Yesterday…Slovenia‘s new Prime Minister Alenka Bratusek said the country didn’t require any help to deal with its banking crisis that the OECD seems to consider as serious but not urgent. Many Slovenian banks are already owned by the state; the OECD has recommended stress tests and the potential recapitalization or closure of failing institutions, but Bratusek is having none of it, saying the bad bank that will be set up until early summer will be able to take the toxic assets. read article

This morning…
EU is considering extending the bailout programs for Ireland and Portugal. According to Reuters, where this story came from, this will be discussed at the Eurogroup meeting on Friday.

To make everything worse, the ECB’s [first ever] Household Finance and Consumption Survey found that the average Cypriot is richer than the average German (by median net wealth). Even though the classic North-South divide re-appears in the median gross income figures, that won’t go down too well. read article

China reported its first trade deficit in over a year for March 2013, again it could be another hangover from the Lunar New Year holiday, leading to increased imports, while exports grew less. read article

Meanwhile in the US, President Obama will unveil a $3.77tn budget plan at 11am EST today, when he will speak from the White House. read article

So long.

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Brussels vs Moscow, and Bernanke leaving the Fed

Yesterday…

the Federal Reserve confirmed its asset purchasing program worth $85bn per month to continue until the US economy would improve past the first scarce signs of recovery. read article

Ben Bernanke also alluded to leaving the Fed to pursue other projects, retirement for example. read article

The UK budget saw five more years of spending cuts, right past the 2015 elections to alleviate the country from its £121bn budget deficit and ensure its credit rating. The Office of Budget Responsibility expects 2013 growth to be at 0.6%, followed by 1.8% in 2014read article

Elsewhere, this happened over the course of yesterday: Cyprus’ Finance Minister conferred with Russia, while Angela Merkel said Cypriot banks had to chip in for the bailout, followed by Brussels saying that Cyprus had to present its own refinancing plan after voting against the EU proposal. It all looked like we had a new credible exit candidate until Cyprus asked for more time to come up with a better idea. Now it just looks like Greece. Here are four scenarios that could unfold over the coming days and weeks.

This morning…

The European Central Bank announced that Cyprus had until 25 March, coming Monday, to get its bailout plan ready without losing access to the ECB’s Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) that keeps the island’s banks alive. read article

Finally, China released some promising manufacturing data, showing the sector expand faster than expected and giving the recovery hypothesis more support. read article

So long.

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China curbs growth targets in light of social issues

There won’t be an update tomorrow, Wednesday March 6th.

News from China, where outgoing Prime Minister Wen Jiabao presented the country’s economic targets for 2013, including an unchanged GDP target of 7.5%, a lowered inflation target of 3.5% (down from 4%) and a budget deficit of RMB1.2tn, or 2% of GDPDefense spending will be boosted by 10.7%, a smaller increase than in any year since 1990. But the departing Premier also said that China’s growth model was unsustainable and on top of that paired with a whole array of social issues, like the income gap, increasing pollution and a real estate bubbleread article

Also in China, the SEC has been allowed to subpoena Deloitte’s China unit over accounting fraud at Chinese companies operating in the US. After initial co-operation between the American and Chinese securities regulators failed, this is a big step in terms of cross-border fraud investigations. read article

In other regulatory news, an undisclosed group of banks in the City of London have received a hat tip from law firm Shearman & Sterling that it was possible to fight the EU’s banker bonus cap [proposal] in courtread article 

Until then, enter George Osborne.

Otherwise, Apple’s stock fell to a new 52-week low yesterday, dragging the company’s market cap down below $400bn for the first time in over a year. 

So long.

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Banker bonus debate: Why it’s always better to be Switzerland

After the EU’s policy proposal to cap banker bonuses last week, Switzerland voted in a referendum on a similar topic, regarding both [executive] salaries and bonuses. Surprisingly, the result leaned towards Brussels, with 68% voting in favor of new rules. On the one hand, that’s surprising because Switzerland is already losing business to places like Singapore that offer favorable tax rates to big multinationals like Trafigura, which could lead to a relocation of their headquarters. But on the other hand, the Swiss proposal gives more rights to shareholders and seems to encourage internal management of compensation as opposed to a blanket EU-one-will-fit-all-because-it-has-to policy (on the far side of the spectrum, Breakingviews suggests the introduction of tipping for services). read article 

On the same topic, George Osborne will launch a last lobbying effort on behalf of the City tomorrow, trying to mitigate the reach of the proposed rule to protect London’s financial district. Before that, the Eurogroup will begin meetings in Brussels today to discuss Cyprus’ bailout program.

Over in the USinvestors worry about the effect of new cuts and taxes on consumer spending, particularly in the light of a 3.6% slump in personal incomes in the beginning of the year weighing on household budgets. The government’s worries still lie with last week’s sequestationObama wants to get the issue resolved to move on to other policies, but Congress is currently just laughing in his faceread article

Elsewhere, China has pushed past the US and has become the world’s largest net oil importer, driven by America’s move into fracking and shale gas, as well as China’s rising demand for fuel. The analysis was derived from December data, when US net imports dropped to their lowest levels since 1992. read article

As for the week aheadJapan is poised to announce a current account deficit of JPY 768.5bn on Friday, according to ZeroHedge, which is the worst number ever recorded. Otherwise, all central banks of the rainbow are meeting this week, leaving plenty of room for statements on the currency wars.

Have a good week.

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Budget cuts and peripheral misery

Today at midnight (Saturday morning in the old world), the US is facing the much discussed spending cuts, decreasing government spending by €85bn until the end of the federal budget year in September. Maybe it’s time to depart from discussing the sheer possibility of this scenario. If you believe Bernankethe pain will be close to intolerable, slowing the economy down by 1.5%. The Congressional Budget Office estimates a 0.6% decrease in GDP. If you believe Fortunecompany earnings are strong enough to allow ignoring the issue. Without a budget fix, the automatic cuts will continue in the following financial year. read article

And things aren’t pretty in Europe’s periphery either. First, numbers out of Spain showed that Spanish corporations faced the largest decrease in earnings ever recorded in Q4, including Bankia’s €19.2bn net loss. Meanwhile in ItalyBersani rejected all rumors regarding coalition talks with Berlusconi. Over in Greece, 2012 revenue targets were missed and the burden of unpaid taxes increased, causing skepticism in Brussels, where the next loan instalment, worth €2.8bn, can be withheld if Greece’ financial report is not satisfactory. At the same time, the IMF, usually in bed with the EU, was more positive, saying Greece had collected more taxes recently and could avoid a further reduction in government salaries.

We shouldn’t forget, however, that despite the mess that is Southern Europe (oh yes, I made that generalization), there are still countries out there that want to join the union and currency. Poland, for example, which originally wanted to have the euro by 2012, is now discussing meeting all criteria (the same criteria that Greece met once…) by 2015read article

In India, Q4 GDP growth dropped to 4.5%, as the government announced a more pro-business deficit-reducing budget for the coming year. read article

Otherwise, Andrew Mason removed from his position as CEO of discount firm Groupon, which recorded losses in the last two quarters of 2012. In his own words:

After four and a half intense and wonderful years as C.E.O. of Groupon, I’ve decided that I’d like to spend more time with my family. Just kidding – I was fired today. If you’re wondering why… you haven’t been paying attention.

Weekend reading

– The “Because I Can” attitude of senior managementread article

– Dear Banker, this is how we’ll pay you in the futureread article 1 read article 2

– the European Union and Ricardian equivalenceread article

Have a good one.

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Eurozone stuck in recession until 2014 (except for Germany, because they think positive)

It’s a Europe-centric Friday, with breaking news of poor performance all around Europe’s economies – we know, thanks for pointing it out again.

The Commission revised its growth expectation for the year, saying the eurozone’s economy will contract by 0.3% in 2013. Bye bye, 0.1% growth. Bye bye, post-recession world. It will be accompanied by an unemployment rate of 12.2% and inflation of 1.8%. At least there will be room for rate cuts. read article

In Spain, the budget deficit increased to 10.2% due to aid costs for the banking sector. The bailout package for Bankia alone added 3.2 percentage points to that. Incidentally, Bankia, which is reporting 2012 earnings next week, will report annual net losses worth €19bn+, the largest loss in Spanish corporate history. read article

The German Ifo business climate index came in higher than expected, because Germany is vehemently following its optimism strategy that includes ignoring any data or reality.

In good news, the ECB recorded a €1.1bn profit from interest payments on a €208bn debt portfolio of PIIGS bonds. Over the last year, income from sovereign bonds even amounted to €14bn. read article

Meanwhile, US consumer confidence is being rocked by rising prices on gas, which climbed 15% up to $3.75 per gallon last week. Car owners in Europe are weeping and cycle to the US embassy to apply for visas. read article

Over the weekend, we’ll see Italy’s general elections (24-25 Feb), aka the Silvio Berlusconi show. In case of a hung parliament, the election limbo would continue for months, and Italy would be stuck with a caretaker government that doesn’t want to implement policies. read article

Weekend reading:

– horsemeat economics, read article

– and then ‘cyberwarfare‘ became a thing, read article

– rethinking drug policiesread article

– in case you’ve read the Bloomberg editorial on $83bn annual bank subsidies, here’s a discussion of it read article

Have a good one.

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