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ECONOMICS – FINANCE – WORLD NEWS – GREEK DEBT

Jeffrey Osborne has left the building

This week…

Was mostly about Ben Bernanke and the path of macro conditions he chose for the coming month. So QE could be gone for good sometime next year, given supporting data, that we are now waiting for under sweat and tears. read Alphaville

In fact, Bernanke himself could be gone as well, as Obama indicated that the chairman could retire in the near future. read Financial Times

Economists polled by Bloomberg now suggest that the cutting will begin in September, to be finished by June 2014. A tight schedule considering when the rumors started. read Bloomberg

And if that’s not enough for you, there is always China and the fear of worse days ahead, pointing towards a credit squeeze. In short (by WSJ):

Early Friday, rates in China’s money markets fell sharply on rumors that Beijing had ordered its big banks to loosen up cash. Still, they remain more than double than average for the year, and the turbulence suggest continued uncertainty in the market in coming days.

Probably equally noteworthy was the G8 meeting in Northern Ireland, the possibly biggest take-away from which was that Barack Obama kept referring to George Osborne as “Jeffrey Osborne“. read Financial Times

Jeffrey Osborne himself, an American soul singer, proceeded to offer George a duet, which was turned down because the Chancellor neither laughs nor sings. read BBC

In Turkey, things are getting interesting for bankers, Erdogan‘s new found enemy. According to the prime minister, the recent crisis was due to the “interest-rates lobby” trying to push yields up. To put this in perspective, the words “blood-sucking” were used, although government officials refrained from sea food comparisons. read Bloomberg

Next week…

The US brings us June consumer confidence data (Tuesday), which is expected to have dropped from May, while consumer spending (Thursday) is meant to have increased slightly; the latest first quarter GDP reading will come in on Wednesday and is expected flat at 2.4%. Jobless claims are published on Thursday morning.

There is whole array of business climate and consumer confidence indicators as well as inflation data due in Europe, including Germany, France, Italy and the eurozone as such are, while the UK is also reporting first quarter GDP growth and the current account deficit.

Japan is due to report on unemployment and indeflation. On Wednesday, Japan reported higher May exports than expected, export value increased the most since 2010, indicating that Abenomics are working. And you say currency wars do no good. On that note, read Bloomberg

Have a good one.

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An attempt at revival

This week…

Things in Turkey continued to be messy, as Erdogan’s stern view of protesters continues to spark new anger among the masses and sent the Turkish Lira falling. read Bloomberg
On Thursday, Erdogan re-iterated that he was losing patience with the protestors. Today, the government and its counter movement reached an agreement, while Germany delayed further EU accession talks with Turkey. read WSJ

In Greece, the doors of Hellenic Broadcasting Corp closed, sending 2,500 former employees out onto the streets. It is meant to be relaunched later this year in a slimmed-down version. read WSJ

In the UK, jobless claims dropped, suggesting that the recovery is well on its way (remember how we’ve been here roughly 700 hundred times now..?). read Bloomberg

And then there was Wednesday, when literally everyone with an audience called the bond bubble, for example Jim O’Neill (formerly of Goldman Sachs) and Bill Gross (Pimco)

Around the same time, Iraqi officials said the country was looking to increase its oil production by 29% in 2014 and 159% by 2020, showing that a) they can and b) they have buyers. read Emerging Frontiers

Then there was a new price fixing scandal [yes, there are still some products left]; this time in FX. read Felix Salmon

Meanwhile on Wall Street, notes on correlations with Japan: read WSJ

In Brussels, important issues like the size and curviture of bananas and cucumbers has been pushed aside as Washington’s lobbyists walked in to ensure EU privacy regulations wouldn’t get so strict that they could hurt US investigations overseas. read FT

Rupert Murdoch is divorcing Wendy Deng, could this be the actual reason for splitting News Corp? read New Yorker

The week ahead…

The G8 meet on the outskirts of London on Monday and Tuesday; anti-globalization protesters will ironically stick to central London, where they will follow a scavenger hunt-like course through the West end, mapped out here. Please refrain from buying condiments at Fortnum & Mason until the weekend, as you may otherwise be questioned about the social legitimacy of your job.

Otherwise, it’s going to be a Bernanke-dominated week – again – as the Fed is meeting and press conferencing. Although Bernanke tried to nullify the comments about an end of easing, saying that it would take “considerable” time until that would happen, everybody seems to think the US is going to turn the money tap off. read WSJ

Have a good one.

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More stimulus for Japan, more consolidation for Europe (ex-Turkey)

Japan isn’t messing around. Today, the government announced a new stimulus package of almost double the size of the last one in October. With JPY880.3bn ($10.74bn), Japan is now living off all its savings to avoid having to sell more government bonds. The government expects the new stimulus to push GDP by 0.2%. JPY161.2bn will be put towards reconstruction of areas hit hardest by 2011 earthquake. read article

In Europe, the day starts with decisive words from the IMF and the ECB, demanding for Europe’s nations to consolidate their budgets and create a European banking union, also to oversee all banks within the union. The IMF also claimed that France needed to revisit its stubborn views on reform, as Italy and Spain could surpass the country by taking the necessary steps. read article

The German parliament has approved the latest Greek bailout shenanigans. Next up are the parliaments of France and the Netherlands. In the latter, prime minister Mark Rutte said he wants tighter European control over financial issues, while reconsidering powers that currently lie with Brussels but could be handed back to nationsread article

Otherwise, data for German and Greek retail sales (read German retail sales), Italian unemployment, Italian, Spanish and eurozone-wide CPI and Swiss industry, retail and wholesale all missed estimates. Happy days. Eurozone unemployment seems to be the only thing that came in as expected – at a record high of 11.7%.

Meanwhile, Turkey is still holding a grudge against Brussels for not having been able to join the EU yet. Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan, who recently said the EU had to make a decision on Turkey’s accession by 2023, before the country will turn east, has now commissioned a “giant mosque that will be visible from all across Istanbul.” According to the plan, it would hold 30,000 people. According to Reuters

It is symbolic of Turkey’s tilt to the east under Erdogan, who has chipped away the founding secularism of the modern republic and presided over its emergence as a power in the Middle East.

In other news, the UN assembly has granted Palestine nonmember observer state” status, same as the Vatican. read article

Dominique Strauss-Kahn and Nafissatou Diallo, formerly housekeeper at the Sofitel hotel in New York, have reached a settlement deal, after she had pressed sexual assault charges against the former head of the IMF in 2011. Ka-ching.

Weekend reading

– The Leveson inquiry and modern journalism, read article

– The FT and your flash player explain the UK’s Autumn Statementread article

– More interaction with PBS explaining the web of betrayal behind David Coleman Headleyread article

– Vladimir Putin‘s battle against corruptionread article

– More on corruption, India prepares for cash handout programread article

– Why plan C for Greece isn’t better than any before, read article

Have a good one.

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